It has been 31 years since Nani and I moved to Napa and we still live in the same house. We decided it was time for a minor face lift, so we decided to order a new front door. Mr. Home Depot comes out with tape measure and a computer filled with pictures to tantalize the eyes. Very professional and no surprises UNTIL we asked when we might expect the new door. This is not a fancy door; we chose right off the list of samples. NO weird sizes or colors, but this will take…..30 weeks!!! Can you believe it? They are that backed up. Normal delivery would have been 4-6 weeks, but COVID etc. has added another 24 weeks to the timeline.
On another ‘can you believe it’ front, Recession. As long as I have been doing this, the definition has been 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP. And although I am happy not to discuss a recession, Secretary Yellen, why do you say this technically isn’t a recession? Unemployment is low, everywhere you look there are hiring signs, and inflation is up except for a recent turn around in the price at the pump.
All this to ask, you want me to predict the stock market.
As of this writing the S&P 500 is down 14.5% for the year. We have seen a slight upturn over the last two weeks from roughly 3800 on the 13th to now over 4100. We are also seeing increases in the Dow and NASDAQ. Will it keep going up like the recovery in 2020 after the COVID announcement? I do not believe it will and I expect more volatility over the rest of Summer.
And I do think we will see a recession next year. What does that mean to you? First, have your expenses in check and avoid wants, if possible. Any money you will spend in 2023 or even 2024 should be in a stable investment. Lastly, do not panic sell - especially if you don’t need to draw on the investments for three or more years.
As for Nani and me, we are escaping for a long weekend to celebrate 40 years of wedded bliss (and hoping we see a new door before our 50th anniversary). I am blessed with a beautiful wife I love to spend time with, we live in a beautiful place and love our family. Life is good, regardless of recession or market ups and downs.