Most important of all – Merry Christmas, Happy Hannukah, Happy New Year and thank you for a fantastic 2025. We are winding down here and looking forward to time with family over the holidays. We may even leave a little early each day to sneak out and get some Christmas shopping done (without certain watchful eyes)
What a year it has been! Looking at year to date returns in the S&P 500 index (15.89% as of Dec.15) does not tell the whole story. We experienced a 2,000 point swing in the year from a low of 4835 in April when President Trump announced Tariffs, to today at 6801- just over a 40% change. And we are not done. Thanks to government shut down, we are going to get some late payroll reports this week to see how employment is going. I will mention anecdotally, I saw a lot of people out and about over the weekend, but not a lot of shopping bags. We do have one more weekend for procrastinators.
We have seen a few interest rate cuts from the Federal Open Market committee resulting in lower rates across the Board and perhaps heating up in the real estate market. It may also mean taking money off the sidelines and growing business. In essence, more jobs.
One question I get frequently is about AI (artificial intelligence). Is the stock too high and ready to burst the bubble? I don’t believe so as there is plenty of adoption needing to occur throughout the world. We have tried a bit of AI to sharpen some procedures and get new ideas, but still barely dipping our toes in the water. I believe we will see those stocks increase as the adoption continues.
What does this mean for you in 2026? Slower gains given the overall economy. Let’s set aside any sudden moves by the Executive Branch and let’s hope the elections breathe life into a stale congress. If you are still working and taking advantage of retirement plans, keep on contributing and if you can, increase the giving amount. If you are retired and in the spending mode, consider taking a look at your allocation between stocks and fixed income products. There are strategies to protect the principal and partake in stock market increases. Consider taking the interest from fixed income products and investing periodically into the stock market.
Moving towards what is going on with the team at Harvest Financial? We will be closed on the 25th and 26th and January 1st. You will be hearing more from our Colorado Colleague Tim Wenger as he joins me for some review meetings in the new year. We also want to add another advisor assistant in the first quarter. Stay tuned!
The age gap is rearing its’ ugly head as I don’t know half the items on my grandkids wish list. I know one thing, I will be getting them books to share; either to read together or converse about the adventure. Speaking of books, my niece; Katie Daniels just published her first book; ‘A Single Season’ with a baseball theme. She has been enjoying a book tour across the US visiting cities with big league teams.
What a great year and I am excited for 2026 and more adventures. Our wish for you is to enjoy all the fruits of your labor and if we can help in anyway to ensure I’s are dotted and t’s crossed, please give us a call.
Disclaimer:1.) The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of Cetera Advisors LLC and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results. 2.) Investors cannot invest directly in indexes. The performance of any index is not indicative of the performance of any investment and does not take into account the effects of inflation and the fees and expenses associated with investing.